The results of the 2024 European Parliament elections reveal significant changes in the political dynamics of the European Union. Here’s a breakdown of the key outcomes, projections, and potential impacts on EU policies.
Popular Vote Breakdown In European Parliament Elections
The popular vote projections for the various political groups show notable differences between sources Europe Elects and PolitPro. Here’s how each group fared:
- The Left: 6.62% (Europe Elects), 5.6% (PolitPro)
- Socialists & Democrats (S&D): 18.81% (Europe Elects), 19.3% (PolitPro)
- Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA): 8.06% (Europe Elects), 5.6% (PolitPro)
- Renew Europe: 11.20% (Europe Elects), 11.3% (PolitPro)
- European People’s Party (EPP): 21.23% (Europe Elects), 24.2% (PolitPro)
- European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR): 12.09% (Europe Elects), 10.3% (PolitPro)
- Identity and Democracy (ID): 8.32% (Europe Elects), 12.4% (PolitPro)
- Non-Inscrits (NI): 9.37% (Europe Elects), 6.0% (PolitPro)
- Others: 4.31% (Europe Elects), 5.3% (PolitPro)
Seat Projections For European Parliament Elections
Based on the PolitPro projections, here’s how the seats in the European Parliament are expected to be distributed:
- The Left: 40 seats
- Socialists & Democrats (S&D): 139 seats
- Greens/European Free Alliance (G/EFA): 40 seats
- Renew Europe: 81 seats
- European People’s Party (EPP): 174 seats
- European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR): 74 seats
- Identity and Democracy (ID): 89 seats
- Non-Inscrits (NI): 43 seats
- Others: 40 seats
Impact on EU Policies
Environmental Policy
The new majority in the European Parliament is likely to oppose ambitious EU action to tackle climate change. This could undermine the EU’s Green Deal framework and the adoption of common policies to meet environmental goals.
Foreign Policy
With increased representation of populist right parties, the EU may adopt a more restrictive approach to foreign policy. This could affect support for Ukraine and the implementation of sanctions.
Economic and Monetary Affairs
A smaller centrist grand coalition and the growing influence of the radical right might lead to more economic, fiscal, and regulatory freedom for member states. This could result in less interference from Brussels in national economic and fiscal policies.
Civil Liberties and Justice
The shift to the right could lead to very restrictive immigration policies and potentially undermine EU efforts to protect democracy, rule of law, and civil liberties in member states.
Enlargement and Integration
The new European Parliament may block legislation necessary to implement the next phase of EU enlargement and support for Ukraine. This reflects the growing Euroscepticism and anti-integration sentiment among some member states.
What This Means for the EU
These shifts in the political landscape of the European Parliament are expected to have significant consequences for the EU’s policy agenda. With a more fragmented and polarized parliament, coalitions on policy issues will become more complex, impacting the direction and effectiveness of EU governance.
Stay tuned as we continue to monitor the developments and analyze the implications of these election results for the future of the European Union.
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